Two years ago, the yield curve inverted. That means short-term interest rates on Treasury bonds were unusually higher than long-term interest rates. When that's happened in the past, a recession has ...

One of the main stories in the money and bond markets of late has been the development of inverted yield curves in the Treasury (UST) market. Indeed, a variety of intra-maturity spreads have witnessed ...

A key indicator of a recession flashed a warning light two years ago. That metric once had a perfect record, but there hasn't been a crash yet. Our colleagues at The Indicator From Planet Money, ...

The inverted yield curve is one of the more reliable recession indicators. I discussed it at length last December. At that point, we had not yet seen a full inversion. Now we have, and it appears the ...

As explained in Prof. Robert Jarrow's book cited below, forward rates contain a risk premium above and beyond the market's expectations for the 3-month forward rate. We document the size of that risk ...

Learn to create a yield curve in Excel and understand its implications for interest rate forecasting. Follow our simple guide ...

Two years ago, the yield curve inverted, meaning short-term interest rates on treasury bonds were unusually higher than long term rates. When that's happened in the past, a recession has come. A key ...